The Outgoing Tide: Bye Bye Donald

The red tide has changed.  It is moving out. And with it goes Donald Trump’s election prospects.  Over the last two weeks there has been a major shift in the collective consciousness of the country.

Tide going out.jpg

Among independents, Republicans and Democrats alike there has been a noticeable and growing repugnance towards the Republican Presidential candidate as he has, by his own words and actions, shown that he is erratic, lacking in basic knowledge (he was unaware that Russia invaded Crimea two years ago), unable to be consistent even with his own professed beliefs, and incapable of resisting insulting anyone whom he feels has slighted him – whether it is the Muslim parents of a slain Marine, fellow Republicans or journalists who ask him to explain his policies.

Republican senators , House members and a huge number of  Republican officials from previous administrations have begun to announce they cannot support him, and this trend will grow quickly as Trump continues to act out in his own inimitable way. They see that he has alienated too many voter groups to have any reasonable chance of winning, and they fear that they will go down with the sinking ship. The Titanic is sinking all over again.


Trump keeps trying to appear “presidential” by making speeches where he sticks to reading a teleprompter or script. And then, within hours, he lapses into tweeting or going off on a spontaneous rant where he demeans, threatens or vilifies someone.

He is, in fact, self destructive because he lacks the capacity to see how his own behavior impacts other people or what the consequences of his actions might be.  Many books will be written over the next couple of years about the classic narcissism in his personality.  And the attention deficit disorder. And the absence of impulse control. The list of psychological debilities is long. I can see psychology students salivating already about writing their theses on the Trump phenomenon.

And yet millions of white people who feel they have been left behind still see him as a man who tells the truth as he sees it. They believe that he, the scion of a New York multi-millionaire, understands their needs and will protect their interests even while he announces in his latest economic speech on August 7 that he will lower tax rates for the rich, for corporations and will eliminate the estate tax for the wealthy. Oh..and will also do away with most environmental protections that preserve our country’s clean air and water.

So, I am calling it now. The tide has turned.  He has already lost. The only two questions are:

  1. How big this loss will be. He has three more months to alienate even more people.
  2. How many Senate seats the Republicans will lose. I’m forecasting the democrats will control 54 seats, a comfortable majority. It could be more if Trump continues on his rampage. The Senate Republicans will regret the chance they had to approve a moderate Supreme Court justice in 2016.



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